Gary’s “The Gut” Goombah’s National Championship Bettor’s Guide
It’s time for college football’s National Championship on Monday night with the #1 Alabama Crimson Tide facing the #3 Georgia Bulldogs. Now that the Bowl season is over, we need to tally up our selections and see who won, Gary or “Bro-in-law” Jay. We selected twenty-one games and had different picks on eleven of those twenty-one.
As it turned out, “The Gut” beat “Bro-in-law” by one game Gary went 13-7-1. “Bro-in-law” Jay went 12-8-1. Both excellent records given the tremendously difficult profession of gambling on college football game in this COVID pandemic time that is also filled with players in the transfer portal, opt-outs, and coaching changes. When you think about it, anything over .500 is a tremendous effort. Therefore, congratulations to both participants! Here’s how we fared:
Birmingham Bowl – Auburn Tigers (-2.5) vs Houston Cougars
- Gary “The Gut” picks: Houston – WON! Houston won by four points, 17-13.
- “Bro-in-law” Jay picks: Houston – WON!
First Responder Bowl – Air Force Falcons vs Louisville Cardinals (-1.5)
- Gary “The Gut” picks: Louisville – Lost, Air Force won by three points, 31-28.
- “Bro-in-law” Jay picks: Louisville – Lost
Liberty Bowl – Mississippi St. Bulldogs (-9) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders
- Gary “The Gut” picks: Mississippi St. – Lost, Texas Tech rolled, 34-7.
- “Bro-in-law” Jay picks: Texas Tech – WON!
Guaranteed Rate Bowl – Minnesota Golden Gophers (-5) vs West Virginia Mountaineers
- Gary “The Gut” picks: Minnesota – WON! Minnesota won by twelve points, 18-6.
- “Bro-in-law” Jay picks: Minnesota – WON!
Pinstripe Bowl – Maryland Terrapins (-3.5) vs Virginia Tech Hokies
- Gary “The Gut” picks: Maryland- WON! Maryland destroyed VTech 54-10.
- “Bro-in-law” Jay picks: Virginia Tech – Lost
Cheez-It Bowl – Clemson Tigers (-1.5) vs Iowa St. Cyclones
- Gary “The Gut” picks: Clemson – WON! Clemson won by a touchdown, 20-13.
- “Bro-in-law” Jay picks: Clemson – WON!
Alamo Bowl – Oklahoma Sooners (-7) vs Oregon Ducks
- Gary “The Gut” picks: Oklahoma – WON! Oklahoma won by fifteen points, 47-32.
- “Bro-in-law” Jay picks: Oregon – Lost
Duke’s Mayo Bowl – North Carolina Tar Heels (-9) vs South Carolina Gamecocks
- Gary “The Gut” picks: North Carolina – Lost, South beat North by seventeen points, 38-21.
- “Bro-in-law” Jay picks: North Carolina – Lost
Music City Bowl – Tennessee Volunteers (-5.5) vs Purdue Boilermakers
- Gary “The Gut” picks: Purdue – WON! In a great game, Purdue beat the Vols by a field goal in OT, 48-45.
- “Bro-in-law” Jay picks: Purdue – WON!
Peach Bowl – Michigan State Spartans (-2.5) vs Pitt Panthers
- Gary “The Gut” picks: Pitt – Lost, MSU beat Pitt by ten points, 31-21, after being down 21-10 to start the 4th quarter.
- “Bro-in-law” Jay picks: Michigan St. – WON!
Las Vegas Bowl – Wisconsin Badgers (-6) vs Arizona St. Sun Devils
- Gary “The Gut” picks: Wisconsin – WON! Wisconsin barely beat the spread, winning by seven, 20-13.
- “Bro-in-law” Jay picks: Wisconsin – WON!
Gator Bowl – Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-14.5) vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights
- Gary “The Gut” picks: Wake Forest – WON! Wake won by 28 points, 38-10.
- “Bro-in-law” Jay picks: Wake Forest – WON!
Sun Bowl – Washington St. Cougars (-7.5) vs Central Michigan Chippewas
- Gary “The Gut” picks: Central Michigan (won four in a row ATS) – WON! CMU beat Wazzu by three points, 24-21.
- “Bro-in-law” Jay picks: Washington St. – Lost
CFP Playoffs Cotton Bowl – #1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-13.5) vs #4 Cincinnati Bearcats : We’re really looking forward to the College Football Playoffs on Friday. We have the classic David vs Goliath matchup in this game featuring the #1 Crimson Tide (Goliath) against #4 Cincinnati (David), who is the first Group-of-Five (non-Power-Five) team to qualify for the Playoffs since the four-team playoff concept was created starting in 2014. ‘Bama is favored by a heavy 13.5 points. Can Cincy beat the huge point spread, much less beat Alabama straight up in what would be the most shocking outcome since… Boise State beating Oklahoma in the famous 2006/’07 Fiesta Bowl? Since…. Miami beat heavily favored Nebraska in the “Real Men Go for Two” Orange Bowl in 1983/’84? Personally, I’m not sure but I do feel good about Gary’s selection. He prognosticates that Cincinnati can cover the 13.5 points. So spend some money this holiday season and place money on the Bearcats ATS. If you’re feeling REALLY lucky, place a money line bet on Cincinnati to win S/U. Now that would be a gutsy move that “The Gut” would certainly appreciate.
- Gary “The Gut” picks: Cincinnati – Lost, Alabama handled Cincy by 21 points, 27-6.
- “Bro-in-law” Jay picks: Alabama – WON!
CFP Playoffs Orange Bowl – #2 Michigan Wolverines vs #3 Georgia Bulldogs (-7.5) : In the other semifinal, we have a projected tighter affair in the New Year’s Eve nightcap. Georgia is favored by 7.5 points over Michigan. As bad as Georgia played in their last outing, on the opposite end of the spectrum was Michigan’s performance in their victory over Iowa. That would make it seem like Michigan should be favored. However, don’t forget how dominant Georgia had been all year prior to their Alabama debacle. The ‘Dawgs defense is historically good. They only allowed 9.5 ppg in a 13 game SEC season with a non-conference game against Clemson thrown in for good measure. Just because they lost 41-24 in that SEC Title tilt does NOT mean they forgot how to defend. Gary “The Gut” expects UGA to get back on track and hold Michigan’s strong running game to a point of frustration for the Wolverines and their fans. DT Jordan Davis is so dominant. Make sure you check him out. Trust us, you won’t be able to miss him. We love Coach Jim Harbaugh and what UM has done this season. However, we just don’t think they can do enough against the brick wall Georgia defense. PICK: Georgia to cover, 24-13.
- Gary “The Gut” picks: Georgia – WON! Georgia won by 23 points, 34-11.
- “Bro-in-law” Jay picks: Michigan – Lost
Outback Bowl – Penn St. Nittany Lions (-1) vs Arkansas Razorbacks
- Gary “The Gut” picks: Penn State – Lost, Arkansas won by fourteen points, 24-10.
- “Bro-in-law” Jay picks: Arkansas – WON!
Citrus Bowl – Iowa Hawkeyes vs Kentucky Wildcats (-3)
- Gary “The Gut” picks: Kentucky – Push, Kentucky won by exactly three points in a fantastic game, 20-17.
- “Bro-in-law” Jay picks: Kentucky – Push
Fiesta Bowl – Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-2.5) vs Oklahoma St. Cowboys
- Gary “The Gut” picks: Notre Dame – Lost, Notre Dame blew a huge 28-7 lead, losing 37-35.
- “Bro-in-law” Jay picks: Oklahoma St. – WON!
Rose Bowl – Ohio St. Buckeyes (-4) vs Utah Utes
- Gary “The Gut” picks: Utah – WON! A tremendous Rose Bowl game was won by Ohio St. by just three points, 48-45.
- “Bro-in-law” Jay picks: Ohio St. – Lost
Sugar Bowl – Ole Miss Rebels (-1) vs Baylor Bears
- Gary “The Gut” picks: Baylor – WON! Baylor won by fourteen points, 21-7.
- “Bro-in-law” Jay picks: Baylor – WON!
Texas Bowl – LSU Tigers vs Kansas St. Wildcats (-3.5)
- Gary “The Gut” picks: Kansas St. – WON! K-State won by 22 points, 42-20.
- “Bro-in-law” Jay picks: LSU – Lost
Overall Standings Thru 14 Weeks:
GARY “THE GUT”
- NCAA: 13-7-1 for the week, 55-52-5 for the season (4-2 on Gary’s “Lock of the Week”)
- NFL: 20-18-2 for the season (3-3 on Gary’s “Lock of the Week”)
- Overall: 13-7-1 for the week, 75-70-7 for the season (7-5 on Gary’s “Lock of the Week”)
- NCAA: 12-8-1 for the week, 29-14-2 for the season
- NFL: 7-9 for the season
- Overall: 12-8-1 for the week, 36-23-2 for the season
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs #3 Georgia Bulldogs (-3) (52.5 O/U)
Here’s what we know:
- Alabama has dominated this sport since 2008, winning six National Titles under Nick Saban (2009, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2020) in his first fourteen years at the school. Saban also won a Title at LSU in 2003.
- Alabama has beaten Georgia seven times in a row.
- Nobody has dominated college football over this length of time more than Alabama has since 2008. This is likely the greatest dynasty in college sports since UCLA’s run of ten titles in twelve years (1964-1975), including a string of seven straight (1967-’73) National Championships in basketball.
- Bryce Young won this year’s Heisman Trophy
- Nick Saban is 25-1 all-time against his former assistant coaches. The only assistant to beat Saban is Jimbo Fisher, who won with Texas A&M 41-38 on October 9.
Here’s what we don’t know:
- Can Georgia finally get over the hump against their rival, one of only two teams (Florida) that has beaten them more than once since 2017. Georgia has lost 7 in a row against ‘Bama. They haven’t beaten Coach Saban’s team since Saban’s first year in Tuscaloosa (2007). Can they finally take down the Tide?
- Can Georgia’s defense play like their dominating self? In starting their 2021 season 12-0, UGA never gave up more than 17 points in a game. In fact, they posted three shutouts and allowed an average of only 6.9 ppg. (83 points allowed in 12 games). Then in the SEC Championship, they gave up 41 to guess who….
- Is Stetson Bennett good enough to beat Alabama?
- Why did Georgia’s offense panic in that SEC Championship and give up on their strength, the running game?
- Can Kirby Smart become the second former assistant to beat his former boss?
- Does Bryce Young have enough weapons without former top receiver John Metchie, who tore his ACL in that SEC Championship?
Gary “The Gut” Goombah’s pick: Georgia Bulldogs 31, Alabama Crimson Tide 20 (Georgia will cover and get the UNDER)
“Bro-in-law” Jay’s pick: Georgia Bulldogs 31, Alabama Crimson Tide 24 (Georgia will cover and get the OVER).
Whoever you decide to gamble on, good luck and we’ll be back for more prognostications soon. Next up….the NFL Playoffs.
“Whether rich or poor, thou shalt gamble more” – Gary “The Gut” Goombah’s mantra