Dutch Lion’s 2024 College Football Playoff Preview
So here we are, the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff debuts tonight. Three more games are tomorrow, then we’ll break until New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day for the Quarterfinals. The semifinals are on January 9 and 10. The CFP Championship Game will be in one month, on Monday, January 20. Here’s how we predict it will unfold.
CFP First Round
#10 Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) at #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (-7.5)
Both teams are 11-1 on the season, with Indiana’s lone loss coming at Ohio St., which is probably the most likely game on their schedule that you might think they would lose. Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois, which is probably the least likely game you would have guessed. So it’s obviously an interesting matchup, two teams known for their strengths on opposite sides of the ball: IU on offense, ND on defense. It’s an intra-state rivalry, yet these schools have only played each other once since 1958 (1991, a 49-27 win by ND). The quarterbacks are Kurtis Rourke and Riley Leonard. QB EDGE: Indiana. The game is at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, the first ever home game in the CFP’s history. Home-field advantage EDGE: Notre Dame. Coaching: Curt Cignetti vs Marcus Freeman EDGE: Draw. Strength of Schedule (SOS) Notre Dame 21st hardest, Indiana 42nd hardest: EDGE: Notre Dame. We’re picking Notre Dame to win and cover the spread at home tonight. PICK: Notre Dame
#11 SMU Mustangs (11-2) at #6 Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) (-8.5)
SMU is a team of destiny. They entered the ACC in 2024 and ended up playing in the ACC Championship Game, only losing to Clemson on a last-second FG. Other than that defeat, their only loss was to BYU early in the season. What an incredible job by HC Rhett Lashlee. Meanwhile, Penn St. lost to Ohio St. 20-13, and to Oregon in the Big Ten (B1G) Championship Game 45-37. PSU has the home-field advantage in this one on Saturday starting at 11am. SOS: SMU 41st, PSU 16th, EDGE: Penn St. SMU has a better offense in my opinion, while PSU has the better defense. Despite playing on the road in a tough environment, we have a gut feeling about SMU. PICK: SMU
#12 Clemson Tigers (10-3) at #5 Texas Longhorns (11-2) (-11.5)
Clemson is riding high after surprisingly winning the ACC Championship Game against SMU a couple weeks ago, 34-31. Texas has only lost two games all year, both to Georgia. We feel as if Texas is the better team. Most people likely agree. Therefore, this pick is too easy. The ‘Horns will win. Or, will they? PICK: Texas
#9 Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) at #8 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (-7.5)
It’s redemption time for Ryan Day after Ohio State’s massively underachieving, disappointing performance in the annual rivalry vs Michigan. This year’s “Game” was similar to the last three year’s “Games”. Michigan won. Of course, Ohio State dominates most teams other than Michigan, so maybe they can win this matchup in the Horseshoe rather easily. Tennessee has been kind of a “quiet” playoff contender. They’re obviously very good, but we like the Buckeyes to rebound after the Michigan debacle. PICK: Ohio State to win and cover
CFP Quarterfinals
There is no reseeding in the CFP, so we already can project the next round’s matchups easily.
#1 Oregon Ducks (13-0) vs #8 Ohio State Buckeyes (Rose Bowl) – A traditional Rose Bowl matchup awaits us with the Big Ten’s best programs of the moment. Of course, this used to be the B1G vs the Pac-12. Instead, this will be a rematch of the incredible B1G conference game on October 12 at Oregon’s Autzen Stadium. The Ducks won that one 32-31. Can HC Ryan Day and the ‘Bucks get revenge against HC Dan Lanning and the Ducks? PICK: Ohio St.
#2 Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) vs #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Sugar Bowl) – Georgia sounds awesome, but are they? They’re #2, with just two losses, at Alabama and at Ole Miss. They have more question marks than usual though, at least what we’re used to seeing from the Bulldogs over the last five years. UGA is getting by, by the slimmest of margins this season. Now, they face more adversity as starting quarterback Carson Beck was hurt in the SEC Championship Game victory over Texas and is NOT likely to return this year. Can backup QB Gunner Stockton step up and lead the ‘Dawgs to victory? It will be mighty tough vs the Fighting Irish’s defense. PICK: Notre Dame in an upset
#3 Boise State Broncos (12-1) vs #11 SMU Mustangs (Fiesta Bowl) – We hate to be the bearer of bad news, but metrics rankings (TeamRankings.com) have Boise St. ranked 34th in the country, compared to all the other CFP teams who are in the top 15. What does it mean? Maybe nothing. OR, maybe something. SMU (#14) played a harder schedule (41st to 71st) and is more balanced than the run-heavy Boise Broncos. We don’t like picking against our long-time favorite underdog Boise, but in truth, the Mustangs might be a better team. PICK: SMU
#4 Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) vs #5 Texas Longhorns (Peach Bowl)– Texas will likely be favored in this matchup, despite having the lower seed. We haven’t mentioned yet how the time off will affect the teams with byes. On one hand, they’ve had time to reenergize and heal their injuries. On the other hand, they might be rusty. Arizona State has been an underdog most of this year. In fact, they were voted towards the bottom of the Big 12 in the preseason, and now hear they are, Big 12 Champions. Still, they aren’t getting much respect. Texas is clearly one of the most talented teams in college football. Are they playing Georgia? No? OK, we’ll pick them. PICK: Texas
CFP Semifinals
#5 Texas Longhorns vs #8 Ohio State Buckeyes (Cotton Bowl) – I believe Texas is scheduled to play Ohio State at the beginning of next season, in 2025. Of course, this year’s CFP Semifinals will be in 2025 too. This game is scheduled for Friday, January 10. If Texas plays Ohio State, you’ll be looking at possibly the two most talented teams in all the land. Who will win? PICK: Texas
#7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs #11 SMU Mustangs (Orange Bowl) – This game in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium will be on Thursday, January 9. Notre Dame’s defense will simply be too much for the Mustangs. SMU’s Cinderella ride will end on South Beach. PICK: Notre Dame
CFP National Championship Game – Monday, January 20, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
#5 Texas Longhorns vs #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Predicting these games now is a tough test for the mind. I try to envision what the game will look like. I’m having a hard time with this one, since it’s a month way and many, many things need to happen for this matchup to actually occur. Every team has question marks, Texas included. They might have the “easiest” path to the semifinals though (Clemson & Arizona St.). If they can indeed handle those games, and then beat a tough and talented Buckeyes group, they could find themselves playing for the National Championship. Notre Dame will likely have Indiana, Georgia, and SMU/Penn St. in their way. Can ND “stir up the echoes”? Why not? PICK: Notre Dame will win their first National Championship since 1988!
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