I-L-L-!

I-L-L-!

Is this the year? Could the Illinois Fighting Illini win the men’s basketball National Championship?

Coach Brad Underwood brings his #13 ranked team into the annual March Madness Tournament starting today. Can this band of bros bring home the Trophy to Champaign-Urbana? How will the Orange & Blue do? Did someone say ‘Lou Do’? Back when I roamed the streets of campus, we had two Lou’s as our head coaches…. Lou Henson and Lou Tepper. Those were the days of dominant defenses and s-l-o-w offenses. That was then. This is now. The time is now for offense! This year’s team features an explosive offense, ranked as the #2 offense in all the land by KenPom (#1 is Purdue).

With a #3 seed in this year’s South Regional, it won’t be easy. Even if the Illini can escape with victories over 14th seeded Penn in the first round, and then either #6 seed North Carolina or #11 seed VCU in the second round, Illinois would then need to likely beat 2nd seeded Houston in their home city, as the South Regional is being held in Houston’s Toyota Center. The Cougars home stadium, the Fertitta Center, is only 2.7 miles down the road, so this will be a virtual home game for the Cougs. But this Illini team thrives on the road.

Should all that occur, then Illinois would likely need to beat the defending National Champion and top seed Florida Gators for the right to advance to the Final Four. It definitely sounds like a bumpy road with many potholes, but again, why not? If Coach can get to his first Final Four, and the Illini’s first since 2005, he’d be playing in front of a massive crowd in Indianapolis, most likely against #1 Duke, #2 UConn, #3 Michigan State, or #4 Kansas from the East Regional.

So yeah, the likelihood that this is the year sounds difficult, like trying to escape the police on a car chase through Chicagoland traffic. However, don’t forget that this year’s Illinois team is really good, maybe as good as any we’ve had since 2005, or at least since 2006 or 2021 or 2024. Those were all solid teams on the verge of more, but fell short for various reasons, often because of getting lower seeds from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee than they likely earned. For example, it’s an odd occurrence that Illinois has held four #1 seeds all time (1989, 2001, 2005, and 2021) but have only had one #2 seed ever (1984) and only four #3 seeds ever, including two of the last three years (1987, ’88, ’24, and ’26). #4 seeds anyone??? Now this is the problem. The Illini have been seeded 4th a record 76 times! Just kidding an amazing seven times since 1981. The problem with being a 4 or 5 seed is that you usually match up with the #1 seed in the Sweet 16. #1 seeds rarely lose in the first weekend, so they are almost always sitting there for Illinois in the third game of the tournament. However, if you are lucky enough to get a #2 or #3 seed, then you only have to play the #1 seed in the Elite Eight, and often the #1 seed has been upset by that point.

Having said all this, I would argue that Illinois has had bad luck over the years, and simply hasn’t been good enough, often enough. In two of the four seasons they earned a #1 seed, they indeed achieved Final Fours and lost once in the National Championship game. All of this is why most experts agree that Illinois is the top college basketball program that has never won a National Title.

As many of my long-time readers know, we’re huge Illinois supporters, and intense backers of Head Coach Brad Underwood. What Coach has done with the program is quite impressive. He’s built and grown this somewhat downtrodden program into a perennial Big Ten champion and contender, as well as a school that can annually compete for the national championship.

Ever since the “Real Champs” season of 2005, I’ve been adamant that someday Illinois will win the National Title, but it will never be the same as ’05. Those guys were more than special. 37-2! Losing only two games all year was beyond imagination. The loss to North Carolina still haunts us. We were so close after making the game-long comeback to get it tied with about five minutes left, then tied again at 70 with two and a half to play, only to go scoreless the rest of the way, losing 75-70. Of course, we’re also still raving mad about how the referees gave that game to the Tar Heels by calling cheap fouls on “Big James” Augustine. He fouled out in only 9 minutes of action, thus propelling UNC’s Sean May to Tournament Most Outstanding Player.

Anyway, after all the ‘crying in our beer’ moments, we know Illinois will win it all someday, likely with a much worse record, and team, than the ’05 guys. And that’s ok. This could be the year. Again, why not?

This year’s team (24-8) is ranked #13 overall in the AP Poll, #12 in the Coaches Poll, #7 in BPI, #8 in TeamRankings, #7 in KenPom, #21 in RPI (outlier), and #8 in NET. I see two #7’s and two #8’s in these different ratings. Therefore, this year’s team is right there. Don’t forget that four of the eight losses were in overtime. It’s a stretch, but imagine if all of those losses were wins? This team would be 28-4 with a #1 or #2 seed. Either way, you need to beat awesome teams in the Tournament. Think about it. IF Illinois was a #1 or a #2 seed, then they’d likely need to beat #2 Florida or #3 Houston anyway to advance to the Final Four. So it’s really the same difference, outside of the possible home-city advantage that Houston may have in the Regional Semifinals.

With superstar FR PG Keaton Wagler, SR PG Kylan Boswell, JR F Jake Davis, SR F Ben Humrichous, the Ivisic twins (JR C “Tomi” Tomislav and JR C “Big Z” Zvonimir), FR PF David Mirkovic, and JR G Andrej Stojakovic, Coach Underwood has a core of eight solid players to take this team to Indy. This group is a Final Four team.

Coach Underwood’s Illini Resume:

• 2018 : 14-18
• 2019 : 12-21
• 2020 : 21-10
• 2021 : 24-7 (2nd in B1G regular season, B1G Tournament Champs, lost in 2nd Round to woefully under-seeded #8 seed Loyola. I’ve read Loyola could have been as high as a 3 seed via the metrics.)
• 2022 : 23-10 (B1G regular season co-champs, lost in 2nd Round as #4 seed to under-seeded #5 seed Houston)
• 2023 : 20-13
• 2024 : 29-9 (2nd in B1G regular season, B1G Tournament Champs, #3 seed lost in Elite Eight to future National Champ UConn)
• 2025 : 22-13
• 2026 : 24-8 so far (T-2nd in B1G regular season, #3 seed in NCAA Tournament)
• OVERALL : 7 straight 20-win seasons, ’22 B1G co-champs, 2-time (’21 & ’24) B1G Conference Tournament Champions, a #1 seed and two #3 seeds in the NCAA Tournament)

As you can see, this year’s team compares to Coach’s ’21 and ’24 squads. So what will happen over the next several weeks? Could this be the year? ……. Why not?

I-N-I-!!!!!!