Gary “The Gut” Goombah’s Gambling Special
College Football’s Championship Saturday
This week, college football’s regular season ends with Championship Saturday. Most of the conferences will feature their Championship Games starting as early as tonight with the Pac 12 Championship Game. If you’re looking for some holiday action from the comfort of your basement couch, here’s your opportunity.
Luckily, Gary “The Gut” Goombah is back from a long, LONG vacation spent at his remote island in the South Pacific. Gary was down there for months before he even realized there was this COVID thing. Then he decided he may as well quarantine himself until the holidays. So he did, but he contracted the “Chinese Flu” anyway. He doesn’t quite know how he was infected but he blames the aliens that sometimes land on his island. Good thing is, the “aliens” already gave him the vaccine shot so he’s good to go. Therefore, “The Gut” is back to provide much needed gambling advice.
Gary “The Gut” Goombah is here to help you handicap the matchups and lend advice to your plays. We will select all five Power 5 Conference Championship games. Think about throwing at least a benjamin into this weekend. That equals $20 into each of these five games (if not more) and make some money to spend on your families this Christmas. “The Gut” would love nothing more than to help families with his gambling prowess. Do we need to remind you of “The Gut’s” acquisitions from all of his hard earned dollars? Check out the photos in your spare time.
Regarding our favored sportsbooks, the “Dutch Lion” and Gary use DraftKings Sportsbook, Sports Betting Dime, and Marc Lawrence’s Playbook.com. Many of you may use Fox Bet or FanDuel Sportsbook as well. The diversity is fantastic. We applaud it but for the sake of this article, we will use the odds provided by our suggested websites and betting sites.
Pac 12 Championship (Friday night at 7pm Central)
USC Trojans (-3) vs Oregon Ducks
Tonight’s Pac 12 Championship was originally supposed to include the Washington Huskies in place of Oregon (3-2) but they couldn’t compete due to COVID so now it’s the Ducks turn. We see that as a benefit because we think Oregon is a better team than UW despite not always proving it on the field this year. However, tonight we think they will play their best game of the 2020 season and come out with an ATS victory over the USC Trojans (5-0). Southern Cal is favored by 3.5 points. Although they are 5-0 S/U, they are just 3-2 ATS, including 2-2 as a favorite. Meanwhile, Oregon is 3-2 S/U and 2-3 ATS. Best Bet Advice: Oregon is 3-1 ATS in their last four against USC. PICK: Oregon Ducks +3
Big 12 Championship (Saturday at 11am)
Oklahoma Sooners (-5.5) vs Iowa St. Cyclones
OU has had a disappointing season, at least by Sooners fans standards. They are 7-2 S/U and 6-3 ATS. Meanwhile, under up-and-coming Head Coach Matt Campbell, Iowa St. is 8/2 S/U and 6-4 ATS. These teams already met this year, on October 3 in Ames, IA. The Cyclones won 37-30. This week’s matchup will be at a neutral site, Cowboys/AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX. The Sooners seem to be bigger favorites than I would make them. The Cyclones are hot! They’ve won five straight and been 4-1 ATS during that streak. Best Bet Advice: Oklahoma is 1-6 the game after playing Baylor. Guess who they played last? You guessed it… Baylor. PICK: Iowa St. +5.5
B1G (Big Ten) Championship (Saturday at 11am)
Ohio State Buckeyes (-21) vs Northwestern Wildcats
Depending on where you reside, you may not be able to bet on this game. If you’re like me and live in the state of Illinois, they will not let you bet on in-state teams such as Northwestern. Therefore, we’re still giving advice on this game but we’re not able to actually put money on it, at least through our preferred vendor, Draft Kings Sportsbook.
Nonetheless, if we were betting on this matchup, we’d suggest going with the Buckeyes. We don’t think Northwestern is that good, it’s as simple as that. On the other hand, not only is Ohio State a fantastic team, but they are looking to make a statement by beating up on the “Mildcats” to get themselves in the CFP. Using Football Outsiders, we see that Ohio St. is #2 overall behind Alabama. Northwestern is #20. Ohio St. is 2nd in offense compared to Northwestern’s 71st. The Wildcats are better in defense at 2nd while the Buckeyes are only 15th. Looking at common opponents, they had two: Nebraska and Michigan State. Ohio State beat Nebraska in the opener 52-17 while Northwestern barely squeaked by the Huskers 21-13 only two weeks later. As for the Spartans, the Buckeyes crushed them 52-12 while Northwestern lost S/U 29-20. I think that says it all. Best Bet Advice: Ohio State was favored by 16 points in this exact same scenario in the 2018 Big Ten Championship against Northwestern. They won 45-24 (21 point ATS victory). PICK: Ohio State -21
ACC Championship (Saturday at 3pm)
Clemson Tigers (-10.5) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
This ACC Championship is our Game of the Week. It’s a rematch from the game in South Bend on November 7 in which Notre Dame won 47-40 in Double OT. As you probably know, Clemson superstar quarterback Trevor Lawrence did not play in that previous game but surprisingly Tigers backup QB D.J. Uiagalelei filled in admirably, which is to say, he was not the reason Notre Dame won that night. In this rematch, I would say it’s fair to believe Clemson is the favorite and will probably win S/U. However, ten and a half points seems to be a bit much. Gary “The Gut” agrees. There’s just something about this Notre Dame team. They have it all. They are confident and would love to win the ACC in their (likely) only year spent in a conference ever. Best Bed Advice: Notre Dame is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a double-digit ‘dog. PICK: Notre Dame +10.5
SEC Championship (Saturday at 7pm)
Alabama Crimson Tide (-17) vs Florida Gators
Saturday night’s SEC Championship is a mismatch according to this large, 17 point spread. However, the Florida Gators are a really solid team. Surprisingly they lost at home last week to LSU, the defending National Champs who have had a rough year trying to replace all of the missing talent from their great 15-0 S/U, 10-3-1 ATS squad from ’19. So maybe they finally got it going last week at Gainesville. Maybe Florida overlooked LSU because they were peaking ahead to the SEC Championship. Who knows? Either way, this game on Saturday night in Atlanta is for the conference championship and maybe for one or two Playoff spots. Could Florida get in the CFP with a 9-2 record? Would Alabama get a CFP invite if they lost?
My initial thoughts on this game are that the pointspread is too large. “The Gut” looks at it differently. He thinks Alabama is on a train and they’re rolling all the way home. Football Outsiders has Alabama as their #1 team, #1 offense, and #11 defense. They have Florida as their #12 overall team, #6 offense, and #44 defense. What do we see with those numbers? We see two great offenses, but only one great defense. “The Gut” thinks Florida’s mediocre defense will be the leaky valve that causes the Gators to give up plenty of points and then panic in the flood known as the Crimson Tide. Best Bet Advice: Alabama is 10-0 S/U and 8-2 ATS including seven straight ATS victories! PICK: Alabama -17
So these are our selections for Championship Saturday in a nutshell:
- Oregon +3
- Iowa State +5.5
- Ohio State -21
- Notre Dame +10.5
- Alabama -17
If you’re looking for other picks, “Dutch Lion’s” buddy Dave has one. His special this weekend is LSU over Ole Miss. The point spread for this matchup is changing by the minute depending on what sportsbook you prefer. In this morning’s Chicago Tribune, Ole Miss was favored by 2.5 points. As we’ve moved forward today, the line has now switched to LSU as the favorite by 1 point or more. As of press time, LSU is still a 2.5 point underdog on Draft Kings Sportsbook. If you can lock in on LSU, Dave says to book it.
Another way to earn some quick cash is placing a parlay bet on all of these selections. In a parlay, you must get all of the picks right to win money. It’s more difficult, but it’s more profitable. If you were to get in on all of the above selections and they all won, with a wager of just $50, you could earn $1270. Not bad eh? Good luck with your action this weekend!